The Future of IT
There are many predictions about the future of technology and how it will affect organizations, IT departments, and technology providers. After reading one such prediction (How to Prepare for Corporate IT's Changing Job Market) the question was asked: Is this just a Chicken Little moment or is this really going to be happening?
If only we had a crystal ball... Here are my thoughts, for what they are worth:
10 years ago I looked at my business model and realized if I didn't change what I was doing, I would die. My main bread and butter came from building, selling, and repairing computers. Two problems: 1) I simply could not compete with Dell, Gateway, and Wal-Mart on price. Why buy a computer from me for $1,200 (remember those days?) when they could get the same thing from a big-name for $900? 2) Back in the days of Windows 3.1 you better have yourself a really good technician. But as technology advanced, it got easier and easier to use. Technology was quickly trending towards easier to use and cheaper to buy. My prediction at the time was this: computers will eventually become disposable. Like a TV, we will buy them, plug them in, use them until they break, and then buy a new one.
So I was confronted with the fear that I soon would not be able to make money selling computers, and soon would not be able to make money fixing computers. Today, I do still sell computers (sometimes) and I do still repair them. But these two concepts are certainly not the core of my business any more. I can tell you this much: if I had ignored the information and continued doing exactly what I was doing, I would be out of business.
Today I think we are again facing a drastic, frightening, imminent change. I can't begin to comment on the numbers, the statistics, nor the intricate details of what will happen in the next 5 years. But I know absolutely that it will not be the same as it is today. So all that being said, here are my thoughts:
The cloud is real and it is changing the way we do business. It will impact all businesses, it will turn IT departments upside down, and without some brilliant innovations it will destroy the mom-and-pop computer shop. Why? Because cloud-based infrastructures are supported from within. There are no in-house servers to buy, install, and maintain.
The tablet and smart phone will kill the PC. We are becoming more and more mobile. Why be tethered to a desk? I catch myself sitting in front of my computer at my desk, checking email on my phone.
If all this holds true, then the whole corporate infrastructure goes away. No servers needed, it's all in the cloud. Phones and tablets run on the cell phone network, no more need for in-house cabling or even in-house Wi-Fi.
So what do all of us technical types do? We adjust. The cloud is real, and it's not made up of water vapor. It's made up of racks of servers. Someone has to take care of those servers.
If everyone moves to mobile 4G (or whatever comes next) then the system will have to be ramped up. That won't happen on its own.
As for application development, all of this change just means we need all the more up-to-date applications.
I don't think there's a need for panic. The sky is not falling. But things are certainly changing. The way I see it is we have two choices: 1) bury our heads in the sand and hope everyone else was wrong in their predictions, or 2) watch the changes like a hawk, make career adjustments where needed, and stay one step ahead of the pack. Once the migration/exodus begins, it will be too late.
